Peace Plans Set to be Presented to Moscow Within Days, States Ukraine's President
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain
After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.
In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.
Defense Assurances and International Support
“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.
Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.
Moscow's Stance and Land Issue
On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.
American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.
“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.
Path Forward and Possible Scenarios
The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.
“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.
