War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".